Boris Johnson’s COVID-19 recovery roadmap

Foresight News
13 min readFeb 22, 2021

Responses from key stakeholders to the Prime Minister’s statement.

Speaking in the House of Commons, Labour Party leader Sir Keir Starmer said:

“This has to be the last lockdown.

Our scientists, our NHS, our armed forces and the collective effort of the British people have shown us the path to a better future.

The Prime Minister now must now grasp it.

I’m glad the Prime Minister spoke today of caution, of this being irreversible, of assessing data and following the evidence.

That has to be the way forward.

Those are the right guiding principles.

I have to say, it’s a welcome change to some of the language he’s used in the past, I urge the PM now to stick to it.”

The Labour Party leader noted concerns over isolation payments:

“I have nothing but praise for everyone involved and I want to pay tribute to the extraordinary speed of this roll out.

As we release health measures, however gradually, there is every chance the infection rate goes back up.

If we are to control that: it’s more important than ever that track, trace and isolate is working.

One of most concerning figures in a recent SAGE report is that only three in 10 people are isolating who should be.

It’s obvious that one of main drivers of this is insecurity at work, and that, as the Chair of Test and Trace said, people are “scared” to take a test because they can’t afford to isolate.

This not only harms our health response, it costs the economy too.

It simply has to be fixed.

Labour has proposed that the £500 isolation payment — which is currently only available to one in eight workers — be made available to EVERYONE who needs it and does not have occupational sick pay.

Will the Prime Minister consider that?

Because if we don’t shift the three in 10 figure, there will be huge hole in defences.”

On business support, Starmer said:

“The Prime Minister announced a roadmap today, but it won’t have escaped businesses — many of whom are just clinging on — that they will not be able to open until mid-April at the earliest, and many until mid-June.

I am not questioning the health basis for that decision, but I am reiterating what we have always said — that health restrictions must be accompanied by proper economic support.

So it makes no sense to announce today that businesses will be closed for many more weeks, if not months, without announcing new economic support.

The Prime Minister will say the Budget is next week, but there’s nothing stopping him saying today that business rates relief will be extended, that furlough will be extended, or the VAT cut for hospitality and leisure.

Businesses are crying out for the certainty — the Prime Minister should give them it today.”

The SNP’s Westminster leader Ian Blackford said:

People across the UK are making huge sacrifices. Children are out of school, families are isolated and we have a loneliness epidemic. The Prime Minister must not leave the back door open and risk all the hard work and the sacrifices being made.

The spread of new international variants of this virus now poses the single biggest risk to finally getting out of this pandemic. That is why quarantining measures for international arrivals is so important — we simply can’t afford to get this wrong.

The Scottish Government has taken tough but necessary action and the evidence shows that people across the UK are wanting stronger measures to prevent the threat of a new variant.

The Prime Minister’s plan to end lockdown will be worthless if insufficient quarantine measures allow a new variant through the back door. Boris Johson must think again and introduce the Scottish government’s comprehensive approach for international travellers.”

Leader of the Liberal Democrats Ed Davey MP said:

“Millions of people across the country have made untold sacrifices in the past year. People have been isolated from their families, hundreds of thousands of businesses have been shuttered and our precious freedoms have been curtailed.

As we begin to recover the Prime Minister must put people hit hardest by this pandemic first: the most vulnerable people in our communities, small businesses and the self-employed.

It is deeply concerning that the Prime Minister has failed to set out plans for a functioning test, trace and isolate system — particularly a failure to support people enough to stay at home if they are asked to self-isolate.

This time, Prime Minister must not squander the months of sacrifice by millions of people and businesses across the country, as he did so recklessly last year.”

Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, said:

“I welcome the publication of the Government’s roadmap today, which shows that there is light at the end of the tunnel and provides more information for Londoners about what the next few months may look like if we continue to make progress reducing the spread of the virus. The health of individuals and the health of our businesses are intertwined.

With case numbers still high and the presence of new variants across the country, it is understandable why the Prime Minister is taking a cautious approach. It is important that lessons are learnt from previous lockdowns when the Government lifted restrictions too soon and failed to get the virus under control, meaning us having to go back into further lockdowns.

This must be the final lockdown that Londoners and people across the UK have to endure. We simply cannot risk completely lifting restrictions too early, leading to a surge in cases and further mutations in the virus which would put the whole roadmap and our economic recovery at risk.

The Government’s focus on fully re-opening schools safely and then allowing people to meet outside is the right one, but there is still more they must do to ensure this roadmap is a success.

Parents, teachers, support staff and employers still need more clarity and support on the roll out of widespread testing. Statutory sick pay and eligibility for self-isolation payments must be increased as a matter of urgency.

It is also deeply frustrating that the Prime Minister outlined a roadmap today, but didn’t give businesses the certainty they desperately need that the business rates holiday, VAT relief and furlough scheme will be extended. It’s disgraceful that the three million people excluded from any financial support continue to be ignored.

The recent reduction in case numbers in our city is thanks to the heroic efforts of Londoners staying at home and following the rules. But even with the roll out of the vaccine, we’re not out of the woods yet.”

Cllr Ian Hudspeth, Chairman of the Local Government Association’s Community Wellbeing Board, said:

“Councils will do all they can to turn this roadmap into a reality by building on successful work with the NHS on the vaccination roll-out. Widespread community testing in schools, businesses, care homes and other places — coordinated by councils — will also be absolutely fundamental in bringing down infection rates and releasing restrictions on our lives and economy.

Councils want all children to return to school to continue with their education and will be working closely with the Government, education leaders and schools to make sure the return on March 8 is a success. Further clarity is needed on how all children, particularly those from disadvantaged backgrounds, can recover the education that they have missed out on, as well as on funding and resources for any educational “catch-up” programme.

We all need to continue to play our part to ensure our lives can return back to normal by following social distancing rules, wearing a face covering and washing our hands regularly. It is also vital that we all do the right thing and self-isolate when required. To help, the Government needs to ensure its £500 self-isolation payment support scheme continues and is available to all those in need of financial support as a result of the requirement to self-isolate.”

Business groups called for further economic support as the roadmap progresses. Tony Danker, CBI Director-General said:

“The Prime Minister’s roadmap offers hope that the country can get back to business in the coming months.

The roadmap is a good starting point to the hard yards ahead and caution is rightly the watchword. Business backs the step-by-step approach to re-opening and put an end to damaging stop-start restrictions. And getting children back into the classroom first is as much a priority for business as it is for families across the country.

We now need to turn this roadmap into genuine economic momentum. The Budget is the second half of this announcement — extending business support in parallel to restrictions will give firms a bridge to the other side. This is particularly needed for sectors who will have to wait for up to three months to re-open and have an anxious 10 days ahead before the Budget.

Meanwhile businesses are committed to working with government to refresh practical guidance for firms and to fast-track the roll out of tests in workplaces in the months ahead.

With good news coming every day on the vaccines, the roadmap offers a pragmatic and safe route out of lockdown in England. Businesses will play their full part in doing so with public health in mind and the confidence to kickstart a recovery.”

Dr Adam Marshall, Director General of the British Chambers of Commerce said:

“It is helpful that many businesses across England can now see a path to restart and recovery. Absolute clarity and honesty will be needed every step of the way over the weeks ahead, so that businesses have a fighting chance to rebuild. The stop-start dynamic of the past year, which has so damaged businesses and communities, must come to an end.

Even with the Prime Minister’s new roadmap, the future of thousands of firms and millions of jobs still hangs by a thread.

Many hard-hit businesses simply don’t have the cash reserves needed to hold out several more months before they are allowed to reopen.

Businesses will hold the Prime Minister to his pledge to support firms for the duration of the pandemic, as this gruelling marathon nears its end. Businesses have haemorrhaged billions of pounds over the past year and need action now.

All the key support schemes for business should be extended — through the summer and wherever possible throughout 2021 — to ensure that as many viable firms as possible can make it to the finish line and recover.”

IoD Director General Jonathan Geldart said:

“The vaccine rollout has shown that there is light at the end of the tunnel for the UK and our economy, and today’s ​roadmap is another welcome step forward. But there is more ​work ahead for the Government.

Directors and businesses ​of all sizes have faced a very testing 12 months and it is vital that they now have the tools to emerge stronger from the pandemic. ​Business leaders will welcome the Prime Minister’s commitment to an irreversible ending of lockdown, but ​cashflow support needs to follow alongside the roadmap, ​with many small firms eager to see​ an extension to the furlough scheme and ​more discretionary grant fund​ing.

It is crucial that businesses have clarity around how the Government perceives the UK is meeting its ​four key tests ​to help them plan, taking into considering the lead time​s they need to ensure workplaces are Covid-safe and so they can start rehiring.

We look forward to hearing more details in next week’s Budget and press the Chancellor to ensure that those who have worked so hard to keep their business going are not left behind when we are so close to the finish line.”

Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) National Chairman Mike Cherry said:

“This road map provides some much-needed clarity for small businesses in England, which have faced an incredibly tough year. The Government’s commitment to helping small firms and sole traders access testing and its recognition of the plight faced by suppliers are welcome.

It’s important for this plan to protect against a fourth Covid wave and accompanying lockdown, the imposition of which would be devastating for the 250,000 firms that fear closure this year. Small businesses are clear that recovery depends on an accelerating vaccine programme, access to an improved testing infrastructure for firms of all sizes, the safe return of schools, and the right safety measures within businesses.

The Chancellor must deliver on the Prime Minister’s “whatever it takes” pledge at next week’s Budget. On one side of the coin we have continued restrictions — on the other, we need corresponding business support.

Whatever it takes means bringing those overlooked by current support measures into the fold, including suppliers, directors and the newly self-employed. Upwards of a million small business owners and sole traders are currently receiving no direct help whatsoever.

Extension of business rates reliefs and measures to mitigate the burden of emergency debt will provide small firms with some urgently-needed breathing space as they fight to make it through to the summer.

Fundamentally, the implementation of, and deadlines for, business support measures need to reflect this road map to avoid forcing the great businesses of tomorrow under before they’ve had a chance to realise their potential.”

A more downbeat reaction came from Christopher Snowdon, Head of Lifestyle Economics at free market think tank the Institute of Economic Affairs:

“Boris Johnson’s sluggish timetable will do unnecessary damage to businesses and livelihoods. By Easter, everybody who has more than a remote chance of dying from Covid-19 will have been vaccinated. There is no justification for closing businesses and restricting movement beyond that date.

Lockdowns create extraordinary social and economic harm. The government has to justify every extra day they are kept in force. Within a few weeks, it will no longer be able to do so. In the meantime, it should ramp up the vaccination programme and ensure that firms which have been forced to close are given enough financial support to survive.

What the Prime Minister has announced is the opposite of a data-driven approach. It ignores everything we know about the vaccines in favour of a suck-it-and-see approach that assumes we know nothing. We do not need five weeks to see the impact of a slight policy change nor do we need to wait until June to know that vaccinating everybody over the age of 50 will drastically reduce the number of hospital admissions and deaths.”

Health bodies also offered notes of caution. BMA council chair Dr Chaand Nagpaul said:

“We support the more cautious approach adopted in the Government’s roadmap, which the BMA has said is absolutely crucial for a safe and sustainable route out of the current lockdown.

As stated by the Prime Minister, we agree that this must be driven by data not dates, but given that the data available at this early stage is limited, monitoring and assessing the impact at each stage, such as schools returning, is absolutely crucial.

Despite the promise of an ‘irreversible’ road out, the Government must not be afraid to put on the brakes if the situation begins to escalate again and must be transparent about decisions taken based on clear metric trigger points.

With NHS staff completely exhausted after a gruelling and incredibly challenging year, we simply cannot afford to repeat past mistakes and risk a further surge in infection rates as the NHS will not cope. Indeed, the only way we can tackle the largest backlog of care the health service has ever faced is with a very measured and gradual easing that allows the NHS to have the capacity to treat the millions of patients currently on waiting lists.

While ongoing restrictions are necessary, they continue to take an enormous toll on the mental health and financial security of many across the country. The Government must be forthcoming with support for those who need it and seek to mitigate the impact of widening health inequalities for those disproportionately impacted as a result of the pandemic.

The enormous efforts of healthcare workers in delivering the hugely successful vaccination programme will continue to underpin our efforts to safely ease out of lockdown. The Government must communicate clearly to the public, even those now vaccinated, the importance of adhering to measures to reduce infection spread.”

NHS Providers chief executive Chris Hopson said:

“In our letter to the Prime Minister last week, we set out four evidence-based tests on infection rates, NHS capacity, the progress of the vaccination campaign and our ability to combat new variants, with a call for caution and an emphasis on data, not dates.

Today’s Roadmap shows those calls have been heeded, but it is vital the government continues to take a cautious and evidence based approach over the coming months.

Trust leaders know how hard lockdown has been and how keen everyone is to get back to normal. And while the cautious approach outlined in today’s Roadmap won’t be fast enough for some, history has sadly taught us that rushing headfirst into lifting lockdown leads only to rapid reimposition, tragic loss of life, and avoidable patient harm.

So it is right that that the government will introduce a gap of at least five weeks ahead of every step, in which it will pause, examine the data, and assess the impact of steps taken so far before going any further.

It is also vital that the government is open and transparent about the thresholds it will be working to at every stage.

The Prime Minister has said that he wants these steps to be cautious but irreversible.

So over the coming weeks and months, we will need to keep a close eye on COVID-19 case numbers. This will be vital in preventing infections surging again which would put unsustainable pressure on NHS capacity.

Our fantastic vaccination campaign continues to go from strength to strength and the results published today by Edinburgh University and Public Health Scotland on the vaccine effect on hospitalisations are very encouraging.

But we still have a long way to go. The government has rightly set an ambitious target for all over 50s to be vaccinated by 15 April and indeed, for all adults to be offered a vaccine by the end of July.

Alongside this, we must have a robust and effective strategy to rapidly identify and control future outbreaks from the variant strains that now pose the greatest threat.

If we are absolutely sure that this is the last lockdown and the changes being put in place now are ‘irreversible’ as the Prime Minister indicates, then a cautious approach is the right one.”

Dr Jennifer Dixon, Chief Executive of the Health Foundation, said:

“The impact of lockdown isn’t the same for everyone, neither will be the impact of unlocking and the effort to ‘build back better’. For some groups and in some areas of the country, significant barriers to experiencing good health and wellbeing remain. For example people living in poverty, the long-term unemployed and those in low paid and insecure work, people with disabilities and black and ethnic minority communities — all of whom could face widening inequalities unless these are addressed.

Build back better starts now and should focus on those at highest risk and with the greatest needs. For example already we know that black and minority ethnic communities are being vaccinated at a slower rate than the general population yet have had greater rates of infection and mortality. We need to know more about who and why to address this urgently.

For example workers who are unable to avoid potential exposure — usually those in lower wage jobs — must be supported financially if forced to self-isolate.

For example those with ongoing health conditions, who have had their routine care disrupted as the NHS has struggled to cope with coronavirus admissions. They will need to be treated in order of need.

As we see the light at the end of the tunnel, the government needs to ensure that no one is left behind particularly the most vulnerable. Longer-term there must now be a major government focus on eradicating the deep-seated health inequalities that the pandemic has exposed.”

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